- About CDIAC
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Working Group 1, 1994: Modelling Results Relating Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations to Industrial Emissions
I. G. Enting, T. M. L. Wigley, and M. Heimann
This database contains the results of various projections of the relation between future CO2 concentrations and future industrial emissions. These projections were contributed by groups from a number of countries as part of the scientific assessment for the report, "Radiative Forcing of Climate Change" (1994), issued by Working Group 1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. There were three types of calculations: (1) forward projections, calculating the atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from specified emissions scenarios; (2) inverse calculations, determining the emission rates that would be required to achieve stabilization of CO2 concentrations via specified pathways; (3) impulse response function calculations, required for determining Global Warming Potentials. The projections were extrapolations of global carbon cycle models from pre-industrial times (starting at 1765) to 2100 or 2200 A.D. There were two aspects to the exercise: (1) an assessment of the uncertainty due to uncertainties regarding the current carbon budget, and (2) an assessment of the uncertainties arising from differences between models. To separate these effects, a set of standard conditions was used to explore inter-model differences and then a series of sensitivity studies was used to explore the consequences of current uncertainties in the carbon cycle.
The contents of this data base are found in three subdirectories: "inputs", "results", and "report". The "inputs" subdirectory (11 files totaling 130 kB) contains the empirical time series data that were used as the basis of the modelling projections. These data include historical and modern measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, CO2 emissions from industry and land-use changes, and 14C activities for atmospheric CO2. The "results" subdirectory (46 files totaling 1.02 MB) contains the projections (as time series) contributed by 10 groups of carbon cycle modelers. The categories of data in this subdirectory include (1) projected CO2 concentrations for specified emissions scenarios, (2) ocean CO2 fluxes for specified regimes of emissions or atmospheric concentrations, and (3) industrial emissions (from inverse calculations) for specified concentration time series (i.e., stabilization pathways). The "report" subdirectory (8 files totaling 4.45 MB) contains a set of PostScript files that constitute the report "Future Emissions and Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide: Key Ocean/Atmosphere/Land Analyses" (CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, Technical Paper No. 31). This report details the specifications for the modelling projections, the models that were used, and the results that were obtained.